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Not throwing cold water on this, but there is great latitude to number manipulation. The old accountant joke, "What is one plus one? Whatever you want it to be." is really true. Percentage comparisons are relative to what they are being compared with. A 16% increase from prior period sales of 500 is 580. For 5,000, that's 5,800, etc.

Actual unit sales would be much more informative.

 

Here's what I found for 3rd qtr. 2017:

Motorcycle segment sales, including PG&A, totaled $155.1 million, a decrease of 14 percent compared to $181.2 million reported in the third quarter of 2016 which included $39.4 million of Victory Motorcycle wholegood, accessory and apparel sales. Indian motorcycle wholegood sales increased in the low twenty percent range in the third quarter driven by new product introductions and improving brand awareness. This increase somewhat offset lower Slingshot® sales. Gross profit for the third quarter of 2017 was $10.4 million compared to $20.3 million in the third quarter of 2016. Adjusted for the Victory Motorcycles wind down costs of $7.6 million, motorcycle gross profit was $17.9 million, down from the third quarter last year due primarily to lower Slingshot volume.

 

Gross profit is total sales less cost of goods sold. It does not include operating expenses, so it's difficult to say how they're doing financially on motorcycles. The Slingshot being included makes it even more difficult.

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I'm just glad it's going up.. .I put a stop loss sell on it... I was asleep at the wheel when she hit $150

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According to one financial article I read about the decline in motorcycle sales, Polaris is engaging in steep discounting programs to retain it's market share. And the article was written by Motely Fool who owns Polaris stock. Seems the declining sales of motorcycles is really affecting most brands.

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I'm just glad it's going up.. .I put a stop loss sell on it... I was asleep at the wheel when she hit $150

 

It could be hitting some heavy resistance at the $127 and $132 price. I'm not sure it will make it back up to $150 anytime soon without going through a pullback first. There are multiple "hits" at both of those price levels. The more hits, wether it be support or resistance, the stronger that line becomes. Many of the indictors are overextended so they will need to unwind before the next big push up.

 

Weekly Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PII&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p83881287001&a=552733626

 

From looking at the daily chart I'd expect some profit taking the next few days but it could still has a little bit more upside before any major pullback occurs.

 

I saw the jump yesterday when PII showed up on my scan. They reported positive earnings yesterday.

Edited by Vintage229
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Harley shipped 41,662 bikes in 3rd quarter 2017. "Double digits" market share is 10% (any more than that and they'd be bragging with an actual number). This means they sold at least 4,166.2 bikes in Q3. I'm sure someone could research and come up with more exact numbers (does Hondakawazuki have any bikes in the segment, and how many of Harley's Street models aren't in the segment)

 

4,166 bikes in probably the best quarter of the year (I assume people buy more bikes when it's warm) means that numbers are most likely much less than 20k/year

 

What the numbers say is that Harley is shipping a few less than usual.

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I think Im just gonna ride mine today... going to Virginia Beach... ride to the Outer Banks tomorrow... then up the Eastern shore a bit on Saturday...

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Harley shipped 41,662 bikes in 3rd quarter 2017. "Double digits" market share is 10% (any more than that and they'd be bragging with an actual number). This means they sold at least 4,166.2 bikes in Q3. I'm sure someone could research and come up with more exact numbers (does Hondakawazuki have any bikes in the segment, and how many of Harley's Street models aren't in the segment)

 

4,166 bikes in probably the best quarter of the year (I assume people buy more bikes when it's warm) means that numbers are most likely much less than 20k/year

 

What the numbers say is that Harley is shipping a few less than usual.

Interesting way to cipher the numbers and as good a way as any.

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For some reason I can't edit my post. Anyway I just read that the 10% Indian market share is based on 900cc motorcycles and above. HD market share is based on 601cc and above. Why would Polaris do that and not include the Scout, I thought it was a big seller. 900cc and above also eliminates the smaller HD Sportster and the Street bikes. Why does Polaris always screw with the way they figure things, why not base it on 601cc and above.

 

 

Remember when Polaris used the 1200cc and above number to say Victory was the #2 heavyweight motorcycle in America.

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For some reason I can't edit my post. Anyway I just read that the 10% Indian market share is based on 900cc motorcycles and above. HD market share is based on 601cc and above. Why would Polaris do that and not include the Scout, I thought it was a big seller. 900cc and above also eliminates the smaller HD Sportster and the Street bikes. Why does Polaris always screw with the way they figure things, why not base it on 601cc and above.

 

 

Remember when Polaris used the 1200cc and above number to say Victory was the #2 heavyweight motorcycle in America.

Both scout and scout 60 are above 900cc so they fit into Indians definition of the segment. When dealing with data, sometimes you need to twist it in a place or two to make it fit what you want it to say.

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1000cc =@61cubic inches

 

900cc = @55cubic "s

 

750cc = @45.7 cubes

 

600cc = @36.6cubes

 

500cc = @30.5cubes

 

 

PII is paying out a $.58 dividend

 

Good for beer money ay?

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I think Im just gonna ride mine today... going to Virginia Beach... ride to the Outer Banks tomorrow... then up the Eastern shore a bit on Saturday...

I wish I could ride my Chieftain but I'm still waiting for parts, 3+ months and counting.

Polaris has their head up their ass as far as I'm concerned, They build plenty of new bikes but don't support the bikes on the road or not

on the road in my case

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Both scout and scout 60 are above 900cc so they fit into Indians definition of the segment. When dealing with data, sometimes you need to twist it in a place or two to make it fit what you want it to say.

OK, they do include the Scout but the 900cc number excludes Harley's smaller bikes that seem to sell well. I think Polaris mentally masturbates the numbers to look good. Why not just release the actual sales/production numbers like HD does?

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OK, they do include the Scout but the 900cc number excludes Harley's smaller bikes that seem to sell well. I think Polaris mentally masturbates the numbers to look good. Why not just release the actual sales/production numbers like HD does?

It's really (in my opinion) really slimeball number masturbating and marketing people doing whatever they need to do to make numbers work in their favor.

 

Let's call large Cruisers 900cc and above! That will get scouts in the count, but exclude most of the sportsters because they are only 883cc! The public will fall for it, hook, line, and sinker.

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