Pop Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Recent staffing muscle increases at KM may bode well for the new Indian, but if I were among the motor company managers that took the Indian pkg. I likely would have also relied on that old management technique of reading the handwriting on the wall. To wit Harley Temporarily Shut Down <H3 class=author>Mick Trevey </H3>MILWAUKEE - Harley Davidson plans to shut down five of its manufacturing plants for one week in November. The company released a statement saying it is part of a plan to "scale back production across its manufacturing sites." Workers will not be paid during the week-long shut down, which begins November 26. The company said it will continue health insurance coverage. The temporary shut down affects plants in Wauwatosa, Menomonee Falls, and Tomahawk, Wisconsin. It also affects plants in Kansas City, Missouri and York, Pennsylvania. For the third quarter of 2007, the company plans to ship between 86,000 and 88,000 motorcycles. That is a reduction from the 91,000 to 95,000 motorcycle estimate initially released by the company. The shut down comes less than one year after Harley's Union Steelworkers agreed to a tiered wage system in exchange for the company's promise to increase production in the Milwaukee area. In a statement released Friday night, the company said it "regrets the temporary impact the shipment reduction will have on so many of its employees as well as its dealers, suppliers, and customers." The company said it "believes this solution is the best option for balancing the needs of our various stakeholders while doing what's right for the long-term prosperity of the company." Before I take a whipping for yet another assault on mother Indian, I am just sayin that it's a smartmanager that knows enough to take a life preserver from a boat still in drydock when the boat he's adrift on is throwing deck furniture overboard. Self preservation is not a damnable offense. Matter of fact, fear of lifestyle declination is a fine motivator to get some product out the door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Mark Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Then too, may be apples and oranges, Pop. Ford overall, is in the toilet, even though Aston Martin, it's ultra-premium marque is more successful than ever, and many other carmakers, especially the high end ones, are rolling in the dough. HD may be down, but Honda seems to be doing fine, and even Victory is in expansion mode. Question is, is the target market the same?....granted, very nearly. Food for thought, though, for sure. I guess we'll see. -Doc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injun Pete Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Recent staffing muscle increases at KM may bode well for the new Indian, but if I were among the motor company managers that took the Indian pkg. I likely would have also relied on that old management technique of reading the handwriting on the wall. Self preservation is not a damnable offense. Matter of fact, fear of lifestyle declination is a fine motivator to get some product out the door. SELF PRESERVATION.............AIN'T THAT WHAT LIFE IS ALL ABOUT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottdog Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Last Resort Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 A shrinking market is a good time to get into that market. I am sure Pop is not of the belief that Motorcycles are going to disappear and no one will be riding them any time soon. Any time during our life time. Motorcycles are just going into a slow down just as the housing industry is. Neither are going into the history books in the way that the type writer industry has since the introduction of the PC. Motorcycles went through that with the introduction of the Model A and that has been factored in for so long it is no longer thought about. Why is Harley closing plants for a week irrelevant to a new Motorcycle start up? Harley is shutting down because they have grown there manufacturing to the point of over production. If Harley had never expanded as they have over the past decade they would not be doing this. they would be working their people overtime, not shutting down. There would still be waiting list. Used bikes would sell for as much or more then new like they use to. Come on Pop, I know you did not buy your first bike in 2003. Indian is not your toe in the water of bikes or a mid life thing. You remember those days. Harley building 50 - 70K per year. People, they build over 350,000 per year today. It wasn't like that a decade or so back. They have the problem of over growth. A company's excess capacity has little to do with a new company entering the market. What does this say about Harley? Hartley has just announced their cost per unit has gone up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badndn Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Recent staffing muscle increases at KM may bode well for the new Indian, but if I were among the motor company managers that took the Indian pkg. I likely would have also relied on that old management technique of reading the handwriting on the wall. To wit Harley Temporarily Shut Down <H3 class=author>Mick Trevey </H3>MILWAUKEE - Harley Davidson plans to shut down five of its manufacturing plants for one week in November. The company released a statement saying it is part of a plan to "scale back production across its manufacturing sites." Workers will not be paid during the week-long shut down, which begins November 26. The company said it will continue health insurance coverage. The temporary shut down affects plants in Wauwatosa, Menomonee Falls, and Tomahawk, Wisconsin. It also affects plants in Kansas City, Missouri and York, Pennsylvania. For the third quarter of 2007, the company plans to ship between 86,000 and 88,000 motorcycles. That is a reduction from the 91,000 to 95,000 motorcycle estimate initially released by the company. The shut down comes less than one year after Harley's Union Steelworkers agreed to a tiered wage system in exchange for the company's promise to increase production in the Milwaukee area. In a statement released Friday night, the company said it "regrets the temporary impact the shipment reduction will have on so many of its employees as well as its dealers, suppliers, and customers." The company said it "believes this solution is the best option for balancing the needs of our various stakeholders while doing what's right for the long-term prosperity of the company." Before I take a whipping for yet another assault on mother Indian, I am just sayin that it's a smartmanager that knows enough to take a life preserver from a boat still in drydock when the boat he's adrift on is throwing deck furniture overboard. Self preservation is not a damnable offense. Matter of fact, fear of lifestyle declination is a fine motivator to get some product out the door. 88000 motorcycles is still a bunch of motorcycles. maybe HD has run it's course. i don't think so. i think it is more of an indication of a correction. people have been living off the equity in their houses for a decade or two. people bought stuff they didn't really need (or afford). one of those things is HD's. market is full of barely used bikes for greatly reduced prices. how does this effect indian?....who knows? in the 90's HD was selling bikes faster than they could build them and you still had other companies going tits up. back when chrysler filed for protection, other car companies were balls to the wall. i see your point...as HD goes, so does the motorcycle business. don't think it is a reason to pull the plug, but it certainly requires a few meetings amongst the suits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop Posted September 17, 2007 Author Share Posted September 17, 2007 I was axially more interested in the recent management acquisitions at KM. Not that I don't see a connection between a declining market for one brand and the fortunes of all brands. There is sure some distance between the marketshare vagaries of the motor company and the possible marketshare of Indian. But, then again, the fortunes of one rises all boats. To some degree the opposite is true too. Anyway, what Pop is really going on about is the tendency for the smartest guys in the room to abandon the sinking ship the quickest. In a declining market the movers and shakers move and then shake. So I am looking through a glass brightly when I say that the recent shipjumps from the moco to Indian are probly by some reasonably astute players who made a value judgement about changing the letterhead on they paystubs as well as the amount of zeroes. Get while the getting is good and all that. Of course, if that's so, then there's no expectation of loyalty. It's market economics 101. They bring some skillset that includes org skills, a bankable name in the venue, and a rolodex. Couple them tricks with their reading the tealeaves that the pond is going shallow, and mebbe these fellas can jumpstart the process and get something tangible in the chute before Pops alzheimers gets any... I like pie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefin Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Pie is Good ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badndn Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 I was axially more interested in the recent management acquisitions at KM. Not that I don't see a connection between a declining market for one brand and the fortunes of all brands. There is sure some distance between the marketshare vagaries of the motor company and the possible marketshare of Indian. But, then again, the fortunes of one rises all boats. To some degree the opposite is true too. Anyway, what Pop is really going on about is the tendency for the smartest guys in the room to abandon the sinking ship the quickest. In a declining market the movers and shakers move and then shake. So I am looking through a glass brightly when I say that the recent shipjumps from the moco to Indian are probly by some reasonably astute players who made a value judgement about changing the letterhead on they paystubs as well as the amount of zeroes. Get while the getting is good and all that. Of course, if that's so, then there's no expectation of loyalty. It's market economics 101. They bring some skillset that includes org skills, a bankable name in the venue, and a rolodex. Couple them tricks with their reading the tealeaves that the pond is going shallow, and mebbe these fellas can jumpstart the process and get something tangible in the chute before Pops alzheimers gets any... I like pie. the rolodex is not the least important point you made. i don't think the rats were leaving the sinking HD ship. i think the rats got a pay raise and a better title. plus, if this whole indian experiment works out, it would like real good on a resume. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Last Resort Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Got a PM from a friend. This is all it said but I can guess that there is more behind it Thought it may fit in the More things that make me go Hmmm brain bucket. They can have the entire program, complete with the fully engineered engine, all the programming to machine the heads (which also machines the combustion chamber and both ports) all the programming and tools to machine the engine cases, enough parts to build 250 engines, bolt on fuel injection ready, etc. Not to mention a growing line of customers. $250,000 cash is what I paid for the parts. I have $300,000 in engineering and tooling. I tried to call them but they are not listening. They can have it all for $500,000. That's Sputhe engineered engine, super high quality castings- the works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Charlie Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Pie is Good ! Yeah but them yankees say "Pie R Square" when we all know it's really round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badndn Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Got a PM from a friend. This is all it said but I can guess that there is more behind it Thought it may fit in the More things that make me go Hmmm brain bucket. hell, there ought to be enough of the faithful to come up with that kind of money. maybe he should sell stock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdog Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Tough times in markets cause shake outs. Those without the moxie will sell out (Look at Titan, American Iron Horse, etc...). Harley on the other hand is quite different. Currently, a virtual megalopoly on their "niche". They have the Harvard MBA's and such (that are so much hated - LOL) to tell them the maturity of their market and the proper reaction to the economy and sales trends - yada yada. "Hey, we may wanna stop flooding the markets which will lead to us having to further deep discounts on our motorcycles which can hurt us down the road into being penned in as the "Discount American Motorcycle Company"". Indian on the other hand is properly prositioned at the moment to continue doing what they are doing - develop a premium American V-Twin Motorcycle. Not only are sales low - which will pent up some demand for American V-twins (people are pulling back on spending dicretionary dollars - so when they are ready they will be more motivated). But by the time they are ready there could be a more robust market and people may be ready to buy that "Premium Motorcycle" - which it has always been - at least in the Modern Era 1998 and forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maldev Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 I think this is good news for KM. There's absolutely no scare that they'll have to scale back production this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Last Resort Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 I think this is good news for KM.There's absolutely no scare that they'll have to scale back production this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Last Resort Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 250K + 300K = 550K investment 550K / 250 engines = $2,200 cost per engine $4,300 retail - $2,200 = $2,100 available profit from retail sales $2,100 X 240 = $525,000 total profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injun Pete Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 I think this is good news for KM.There's absolutely no scare that they'll have to scale back production this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdog Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 I think this is good news for KM.There's absolutely no scare that they'll have to scale back production this year. zactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCH Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Yep, pretty fucking hard to scale back from zero, ain't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Pie 'R round. Cornbread 'R square Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdog Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 250K + 300K = 550K investment550K / 250 engines = $2,200 cost per engine $4,300 retail - $2,200 = $2,100 available profit from retail sales $2,100 X 240 = $525,000 total profit BTW I think you are a little off on your numbers - you need to pay for engineering, land for your factory, building for manufacture/assembly, promotion, advertising, etc... not to mention shipping, testing and customer service, dealer network. All takes time, money, a plan and a certain "goodwill" between the company and the majority of the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snogoer Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 A declining market for new bikes is a good deal for us independents! That means people are keeping their old ones longer for the lack of funds in their wallets. More business for us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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